Trends in Technology

So apparently nanotechnology is going to take the next step in advancing Moore's Law by making transistors on a chip using atom-sized 'quantum dots', semi-conductors that transmit information-carrying electrons on a circuit.

For those not in the know, Moore's Law dictates that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double every 18 months. While initially this was an interesting observation, it has since become a self-fulfilling prophecy among chip manufacturers. While this greatly increases technological potential, the law is reserved only for transistors, and not cpu power in general. The interesting thing about nanotechnology stepping in is that time and time again, critics of Moore's Law have been proven wrong in the physical limitations present in how developed a chip can actually get, and now that we're getting into molecule-sized conductors... I kind of wonder if we'll somehow even pass that hurdle. If we do, I'm not saying anything is impossible ever again.

These are interesting trends though. Certain futurologists, (not to be confused with the art movement of futurism) most prominently Ray Kurzweil, have this theory called the Technological Singularity, which notices technology trends that persistently change exponentially. These accellerated changes concerning technology, energy manipulation, and artificial intelligence suggests that unless it slows down in the very near future, eventually these exponential advancements are going to reach a point where we can no longer identify or predict future developments. The idea is that basically we're going to create systems or artificial intelligences or self-replicating machines that are smarter and more complicated than we are, and they in turn will replicate into something even more complicated and advanced.

The theory is actually pretty sound. Even 10 years ago we could barely imagine the technology we have today. Computer integration and speed is improving exponentially well, and phenomenons such as social networking, web 2.0, and other information integration services are suggesting something synonymous with some sort of collective consciousness. Again, these are just extrapolated trends, but the internet is an interesting phenomenon. In a way, its mostly a continuation of the printing press, just far more efficient, faster, and more capable. Even before that, civilizations have found numerous creative ways to exchange information, homing pidgeons come to mind. So why is this trend exponentially multiplying? Is it some sort of super-natural phenomon, nature's way of developing a consciousness capable of joining itself into one super-consciousness?

Sure, it sounds silly, but imagine if you will a future where people can find any information they went, whenever they want. They have some sort of device on them at all times that is capable of finding any known and documented resource in the world, they can instantly communicate with people that are experts in a field, and can relay their findings and discoveries to others that find it relevant right away. You might even call some device like this a smartphone. Sure, connecting the world through technology is nice and all, but it's not necessarily a collective consciousness, is it? Maybe, the brain works primarily by linking relevant parts. There's a central nervous system, but essentially all the parts of the brain work together fairly limitedly. Already I feel that my own ability to know anything about our universe is limited only by my own will to go and search for that information. Social networking will soon take bigger bounds and collectively scientists, politicians, scholars, and the workforce of the world will work together to expand the technology we have today. Eventually people will be utilized more and more efficiently, hell, robots might even take over basic labor relatively soon allowing more minds to join together in this epic cause. Obama's taking the first steps of many to assure more people have access to faster internet connections and helping to usher others into a digital age, and, and... y'know, I'm getting ahead of myself hardcore here, I'm gonna stop.

This is mostly optimism on my part, but thats what trend-reading does to me. Say all this is true, is it necessarily a better future? Not really, it could be worse in many ways, but it is fascinating on more levels than just technology, I think.